Drought in Delaware

Note:  The next drought report will be on March 11th, 2026.

Highlights:

• January 2026 was the 6th straight month with below normal precipitation in Delaware, with a monthly departure from normal of -0.10 inches.
• Due to snow and ice-related issues, updates on evapotranspiration, soil moisture and streamflow were limited.
• Groundwater continues to trend downward across most of the state due to the extended below normal precipitation the state has been experiencing.
• The climate outlook for the next 3 months shows a slightly higher chance of having above normal temperatures with precipitation having equal chances of above and below normal precipitation.

Statewide Drought Discussion

Water conditions throughout Delaware continue to slowly deteriorate, as the state experienced its 6th straight month of below normal precipitation.  Streamflow and groundwater levels are also generally below normal for this time of year.

Precipitation

January was an up and down month in terms of precipitation, with a significant portion of it coming in the form snow/sleet/freezing rain the last week of the month.  Unfortunately, the DEOS network’s primary precipitation gauges don’t perform well when measuring frozen precipitation, which usually means they’re under-representative of what actually fell across the state.  Therefore, we’re using a radar-based precipitation map this month, which has its own bias.  It’s just a better option than a DEOS “gauge-only” precipitation map when we have a lot of frozen precipitation.  Figure 1 shows 180-day precipitation departures from the Integrated Water Portal, which is a product of the Southern Regional Climate Center (SRCC).  Over approximately the last 6 months, precipitation departures for Delaware range from 6 inches below normal to 9 inches below normal with departures being greatest in northern New Castle County.  These long-term deficits have implications for groundwater conditions, which you can read about further down in this drought update.

Statewide precipitation for January came in very close to average according to statistics from the National Center for Environmental Intelligence (NCEI), with the monthly departure from the 1991-2020 average being only -0.10 inches.  This means Delaware hasn’t seen an above normal precipitation month since July 2025, which is 6 straight months of below normal precipitation. 

Temperature/Evapotranspiration

January started out fairly mild, but ended on a much colder note.  NCEI’s monthly climate statistics show January as a below normal temperature month (-3.2 °F) for Delaware relative to its 1991-2020 mean.  With this winter’s colder temperatures, evapotranspiration decreases significantly, and with a fairly dense snowpack lingering across much of the state, particularly Kent and New Castle counties, evapotranspiration from the soil and vegetation is almost zero.  Once that snowpack melts, the surface water balance should go back into the positive, with meltwater going into the soil and streams.  

Soil Moisture

Due to the presence of aforementioned snowpack and freezing soil conditions throughout Delaware, soil moisture measurements by sensors and satellites are virtually unusable right now.  We’ll revisit soil moisture next month when we hopefully have more favorable conditions.

Streamflow

Throughout January 2026, Delaware’s rivers and streams continued to show below-normal to much below-normal flows for this time of year, which reflects the limited rainfall and lingering dry conditions from earlier in the fall and early winter.

Discharge measurements on the White Clay Creek at Newark, White Clay Creek near Newark, Red Clay Creek at Stanton, and on the Brandywine are unavailable because the gages have been encased in ice since the last week in January. Hopefully, as temperatures start to increase, the ice will melt from the sensors and accurate measurements can resume.

Real-time monitoring in Kent and Sussex counties shows that streamflows across these counties remain predominantly below normal. In several instances, streamflows dropped into the lower percentiles (the Nanticoke River and the Beaverdam Branch at Houston) less than 5th percentile) compared with long-term records for January. Low streamflows will have an affect on water availability, ecosystem health, and water quality across Delaware if conditions persist into winter and early spring.

Chlorides

Chloride levels on the Christina River near Newport are unavailable because of icing at the gage; however, when the ice melts we would expect to see elevated chloride levels due to the amount of road salt applied to the roads in January.  Elevated chloride levels can speed up the corrosion of pipes, bridges, and other infrastructure, leading to higher maintenance costs and a greater risk of damage. They also pose a threat to aquatic ecosystems, as fish, insects, and plants in freshwater streams are especially sensitive to changes in salinity.

On the Delaware River, the typical January median salt front position is around River Mile 70 (near the  mouth of the Christina River), meaning the current location (River Mile 77 near Claymont, Delaware) is noticeably farther upstream than average for this time of year. Continued monitoring through the winter will help assess whether upcoming rainfall and river discharge push the salt front back downstream toward its usual seasonal position.

Groundwater

During late January/early February, groundwater levels in Delaware continued to reflect the effects of an extended period of below-normal rainfall and low streamflows that began in the fall of 2025. Recent monitoring shows that several wells across the state were at or below normal ranges for this time of year, with some wells exhibiting historically low levels.

A shallow monitoring well just south of Newark (DGS well Db24-18) had measured water levels around 15.4 feet below land surface, which is just below the normal range for early January (typical range ~11.5–14.5 feet). This indicates that groundwater in the unconfined shallow aquifer remained lower than expected for the month of January.

Well Hb12-05, (located in southern New Castle County) which had been at the low end of normal since early fall, rose to the normal range in early January and remained in the normal range for much of the month (Figure 2). However, the water level has since fallen back into the below normal category.

A monitoring well in southwestern Kent (Mc51-01a) continued to track below the 5th percentile at around 17.0 feet below land surface.  Since last fall, groundwater levels may represent a new record low for that well if confirmed with longer records.

At least one well (Pf24-02 located south of Georgetown) remained within the normal range (albeit the low end of normal), reflecting geographic variability in groundwater response across Delaware.

Delaware’s groundwater system responds slowly to changes in precipitation compared with surface waters (like streams and rivers). As a result, patterns of dry weather tend to show up first in streamflow and soil moisture, and then, if dry conditions persist, in groundwater levels and aquifer conditions.

Groundwater is a major source of drinking water and irrigation supply in much of Delaware, especially south of the Chesapeake and Delaware Canal. Extended periods of low levels can reduce well yields and may require deeper pumping or alternative supply strategies in some communities. Persistently low groundwater levels increase the risk of saltwater intrusion in coastal and near-estuarine aquifers, complicating long-term freshwater sustainment. In addition, low groundwater can stress wetlands and baseflow conditions to streams during dry periods, affecting fish, invertebrates, and riparian habitats.

Because groundwater responds more slowly than surface water, continued monitoring into winter and early spring 2026 will be critical to assess whether recent rainfall and seasonal recharge allow levels to rebound or if dry conditions continue to depress the water table.

Weather and Climate Outlook

With the long-term dryness we’ve experienced, it will likely take a sustained 2-3 months of above normal precipitation for our drought conditions to improve.  Thus it’s important to consider the climate outlook for the next few months to see if there’s some signs of hope on the horizon.  Figure 3 shows the temperature outlook for the three month period beginning in February and ending in April of this year from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC).

If you haven’t been enjoying the cold winter conditions lately, this outlook might look appealing with slightly above normal temperatures likely over the next 3 months.  However, above normal temperatures also likely mean above normal evapotranspiration, which are not the conditions we want to have when we’re already in a long-term water balance deficit.  This is consistent with the longwave upper atmospheric trough that’s been in place over the Eastern United States since late November.  Until this pattern breaks down, we should continue to expect cooler than normal temperatures. 

CPC’s precipitation outlook for precipitation from February through April shows our state in the “Equal Chances” category (Figure 4).

This means the CPC did not have enough information or decisive data to predict above or below normal precipitation.  While this could mean we see near normal precipitation over the next few months, that doesn’t mean we will.  The trend tends to be a good predictor of future climate conditions until some large-scale climate factors change.  There are some signs that the weak La Nina pattern will shift to ENSO Neutral conditions over the tropical Pacific as we head into March.  However, this shift is likely to occur slowly and the effect is likely to be pretty muted given the relatively weak strength of the current La Nina pattern.  Thus, it’s hard to predict a significant change in the precipitation pattern we’ve been in.  Given that we’ve seen 6 consecutive months of below normal precipitation, we really could use above normal precipitation conditions from late winter into early spring.  Otherwise, our water conditions could decline rapidly when the growing season begins.