Drought in Delaware

Note:  The next drought report will be on April 15th, 2026

Highlights:

• February marked the 7th straight month with below normal precipitation, however, what fell was still very beneficial, since very little moisture from the surface is lost to the atmosphere this time of year.
• With below normal temperatures over the last couple of months, evapotranspiration has been even lower than than the seasonally low level it normally is this time of year.
• Extremely low streamflows for this time of year continue along the streams and creeks throughout the state.
• Low discharge rates on the streams and rivers throughout the region have allowed the salt front on the Delaware River to be about 6 nautical miles farther north than it normally is this time of year
• Groundwater continues to be below normal throughout most of the state due to the long-term dry pattern we’ve been experiencing
• Drought conditions are likely to persist through the spring, but looking out beyond the next three months, conditions could shift towards a pattern that might lead to wetter conditions

Statewide Drought Discussion

Water conditions at the surface are getting closer to seasonal norms, but with precipitation continuing to be at or just below normal, stream discharge and groundwater levels continue to be well below normal.

Precipitation

Statewide precipitation came in just below normal for the month of February.  This marks the 7th straight month with below normal precipitation, although January and February combined have only been 0.15 inches below the 1991-2020 mean precipitation.  While we really could have used a couple of months that were 1 to 2 inches above normal, getting something close to average for two straight months has helped.  Figure 1 shows that Delaware was pretty similar to the surrounding region in the amount of precipitation it’s received over the last 60 days (since January 11th).  While most of the state saw less than average precipitation over that time period, a couple of spots (e.g., south central Kent County and southeast Sussex County) saw near normal precipitation. 

Temperature/Evapotranspiration 

Temperatures in January and February were quite cold, with the statewide average temperature coming in 4.4 °F below the 1991-2020 mean temperature for the 2-month period.  Looking at the reference evapotranspiration (RefET) data from the DEOS Network in Figure 2, most of Delaware experienced below average RefET data over the last 60 days (since January 11, 2026). 

This is good news from a drought standpoint, because it means that even with slightly below normal precipitation over the last couple of months, we are gaining a lot more water than we’re losing.  While this surplus of moisture is normal for this time of year, it’s especially important given how dry we have been since late summer.

Soil Moisture

Since we have experienced significant snow cover at times over the past month, soil moisture will not be addressed in this update.  With the growing season right around the corner, we’ll start taking a closer look at soil moisture next month. 

Streamflow

Several USGS  streamgages located in northern New Castle County were locked in ice from January 25^th through February 15^th; and as a result, there are no data recorded for approximately 22 days. Those missing data affect the 30-day moving averages even into early March. Despite the melted snow and ice discharge on many of the streams remain exceptionally low.

Although getting a temporary boost from the melted snow, real-time discharge measurements of the streams in northern New Castle county remain exceptionally low for this time of year. The flows on the White Clay Creek at Newark are in the 5^th to 10^th percentile (much below normal) and flows on the White Clay Creek near Stanton, Red Clay Creek near Stanton, and the Brandywine River at Wilmington are in the 10^th to 25^th percentiles (below normal).

Having increased slightly, real-time monitoring in Kent and Sussex shows that streamflows across these counties remain predominantly below normal. Earlier in the winter flows on the Nanticoke River at Bridgeville and on the Beaverdam Branch at Houston dropped into the <5 percentile range but have risen to the 10^th to 25^th percentile.

Low streamflow will have an affect on water availability, ecosystem health, and water quality across Delaware. Well above-normal precipitation will be needed in the next month or two to increase the flows to what is typical for spring.

Chlorides

Chloride levels on the Christina River near Newport are actually quite low considering the road salt that was applied prior to snow storms. Chloride concentrations have remained between 150 ppm and approximately 165 ppm. Elevated chloride levels can speed up the corrosion of pipes, bridges, and other infrastructure, leading to higher maintenance costs and a greater risk of damage. They also pose a threat to aquatic ecosystems, as fish, insects, and plants in freshwater streams are especially sensitive to changes in salinity.

On the Delaware River, the typical March median salt front position is around River Mile 70 (near the  mouth of the Christina River), meaning the current location at River Mile 76.1 (near Claymont, Delaware) is noticeably farther upstream than average for this time of year. Continued monitoring through the early spring will help assess whether future rainfall and river discharge will be enough to push the salt front back downstream toward its usual seasonal position.

Groundwater

During February and into early March, groundwater levels in Delaware continued to reflect the effects of an extended period of below-normal precipitation and low streamflows that began in the fall of 2025. Recent monitoring shows that several wells across the state were at or below normal ranges for this time of year, with some wells exhibiting historically low levels.

A shallow monitoring well just south of Newark (DGS well Db24-18) had near real-time water levels around 15.2 feet below land surface, which is well below the normal range for early March (typical range ~9.8 to 13.5 feet below land surface). This indicates that groundwater in the unconfined shallow aquifer remained below normal for this time of year, which is when recharge should be occurring.

Well Hb12-05, (located in southern New Castle County) which had been at the low end of normal since early fall, rose to the normal range in early January and is currently at a depth well above the median for March.

A monitoring well in southwestern Kent (Mc51-01a; Figure 3) has continued to track below the 5th percentile at around 15.8 feet below land surface. Since last fall, groundwater levels may represent a new record low for that well if confirmed with longer records.

At least one well (Pf24-02 located south of Georgetown) remained within the normal range , reflecting geographic variability in groundwater response across Delaware.

Delaware’s groundwater system responds slowly to changes in precipitation compared with surface waters (like streams and rivers). As a result, patterns of dry weather tend to show up first in streamflow and soil moisture, and then, if dry conditions persist, in groundwater levels and aquifer conditions.

Groundwater is a major source of drinking water and irrigation supply in much of Delaware, especially south of the Chesapeake and Delaware Canal. Extended periods of low levels can reduce well yields and may require deeper pumping or alternative supply strategies in some communities. Persistently low groundwater levels increase the risk of saltwater intrusion in coastal and near-estuarine aquifers, complicating long-term freshwater sustainment. In addition, low groundwater can stress wetlands and baseflow conditions to streams during dry periods, affecting fish, invertebrates, and riparian habitats.

Because groundwater responds more slowly than surface water, continued monitoring into winter and early spring 2026 will be critical to assess whether recent rainfall and seasonal recharge allow levels to rebound or if dry conditions continue to depress the water table. 

Weather and Climate Outlook

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) drought outlook for the upcoming spring depicts drought conditions persisting throughout much of the eastern United States, including our state (Figure 4).

This is mainly driven by the potential for above normal temperatures, which means that even with normal precipitation, we will likely lose slightly more surface moisture than usual due to higher than normal evapotranspiration rates.  While a warm spring might sound nice after the cold weather we’ve experienced the last two months, it’s not exactly welcome given the long-term dry pattern we’ve been experiencing. 

Looking ahead towards the summer, which is when drought conditions would have the greatest impact on our water resources, agriculture, and ecosystems, the CPC is expecting a change in the ENSO pattern.  This is an important factor in our climate system, as it typically affects the jet streams that bring significant weather systems through our region.  It also affects tropical cyclone activity.  If a mild-to-moderate El Nino develops, as is being predicted (see Figure 5), then we would expect to see the potential for more active storm track to return, which could result in some alleviation of the long-term dry pattern we’ve been in since late 2024.  El Nino also tends to increase wind shear in the tropical Atlantic, which usually leads to decreased tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Ocean.